In early December 2025, the Southeast Asian fertilizer market exhibited a structural divergence: potash prices remained firm, supported by large Chinese contracts; urea and phosphate fertilizer prices declined due to weak demand; and the "epic" surge in sulfur prices created a cost support risk for the phosphate fertilizer market. Regional customers need to pay close attention to supply and demand dynamics and transportation risks.
The potash market performed steadily. Influenced by the implementation of the 2026 Chinese potash contract at $348/ton (CFR), the spot price of standard potassium chloride in Southeast Asia remained at $360-380/ton (CFR), while granular potash from Thailand and Vietnam was quoted at $380-390/ton (CFR), prices unchanged month-on-month and significantly higher than the Chinese market. The average transaction price of recently completed potash tenders in Indonesia was $383/ton (CFR), an increase of $8 from the previous month, indicating the supporting effect of palm oil planting season demand on prices. On the supply side, the global supply gap caused by production cuts in Belarus and Russia has not yet eased, and coupled with increased transportation costs due to disruptions in Red Sea shipping routes, prices are expected to remain firm in the short term.
The nitrogen fertilizer market saw a slight correction. Southeast Asian urea CFR prices were quoted at $415-425/ton, down $14-71 from the previous period, mainly due to a decline in Chinese FOB prices ($400-425/ton) and weak regional demand. Currently, rice planting in Southeast Asia is nearing its end, and winter planting demand has not yet been fully released. Market purchases are mainly for small-scale restocking, lacking upward price momentum.
The phosphate fertilizer market is facing a supply-demand imbalance. Diammonium phosphate importers are quoting $695-700/ton (CFR), but buyers' target price is only around $670/ton, resulting in scarce transactions due to the price difference. Continuous rainfall has hampered agricultural activities, and high regional inventories have suppressed purchasing intentions. However, cost pressures cannot be ignored—sulfur prices surged to 4130 yuan/ton (approximately $584/ton) in two days since December, a cumulative increase of over 175%, directly pushing up the production cost of phosphate fertilizers.
Looking ahead, the sulfur price increase may gradually be transmitted to phosphate fertilizer prices. Potash fertilizer prices will fluctuate at high levels, supported by a supply gap, while urea prices will need to wait for the start of winter stockpiling demand. Southeast Asian customers are advised to closely monitor adjustments to China's export policies and Red Sea shipping activity, and to rationally plan their procurement pace to control cost risks.
