Entering December 2025, the global fertilizer market continued to face the dual pressures of strong demand and tight supply chains, leading to a rebound in prices for various fertilizers after a mid-year correction. Prices for core varieties remained firm, and China's exports saw both volume and price increases, becoming a crucial pillar of global supply. Although current prices are still below the historical peak of 2022, they are significantly higher than the same period in 2024.
I. International Price Trends: Stable with Slight Increases in Many Varieties
Potash (MOP): The 2026 China bulk contract price was settled at $348/ton (CFR). The Southeast Asian spot market remained firm, with the average import price of potassium chloride at approximately $376.10/ton. Global prices are expected to rise by about 19% for the year, mainly due to geopolitical risks and sanctions.
Diamium Phosphate (DAP): Phosphate fertilizers saw one of the largest price increases this year. In September 2025, DAP prices rose 41% year-on-year to approximately $554.8 per ton. The price is projected to rise 26% for the full year of 2025, with the market generally predicting a slight 8% decline in 2026. Currently, the average DAP price hovers around $600 per ton. The price increase stems from rising raw material costs and export restrictions imposed by China.
Urea: The urea market is highly volatile. In September 2025, the international urea price was approximately $461 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%. The price is projected to surge 30% for the full year of 2025. Major producing countries (such as China) are tightening the global market by restricting exports to ensure domestic supply.
II. China's Import and Export Performance is Outstanding
Customs data shows that in November 2025, China's fertilizer exports reached 4.441 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%; the export value was $1.387 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%. China's fertilizer exports from January to November totaled 42.86 million tons, a surge of 46.4% year-on-year, with an export value of US$12.937 billion, an increase of 61.5%. Urea exports were particularly strong, with cumulative exports increasing more than 14 times year-on-year, becoming the core driver of export growth.
On the import side, China imported 1.389 million tons of fertilizer in November, with an average import price of US$376.10 per ton. Cumulative imports from January to November reached 12.432 million tons, ensuring a balance between supply and demand in the domestic market.
III. Policy and Market Landscape
Against the backdrop of global geopolitical tensions, fluctuating energy costs, and export restrictions imposed by major trading nations, the international fertilizer market is undergoing a reshaping process. While actively ensuring domestic supply and demand balance, China has achieved significant growth in exports, particularly a surge in urea exports, demonstrating China's crucial role in the global supply chain. Meanwhile, potash and phosphate fertilizer prices remain firm due to tight supply, resulting in an overall high market level with significant regional price differences.
