As the release of the 2026 Central Government Document No.1 enters the countdown, the policy of replacing chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers has once again become the focus of the industry. Coupled with the volatile fluctuations in the traditional chemical fertilizer market this week, the organic fertilizer market is ushering in dual catalysts from both policy and market. Whether this hundred-billion-yuan market is about to enter a development inflection point has attracted widespread attention from the industry.
1. Policy Direction: Policies are continuously being released, and a systematic support framework is gradually emerging. It is understood that the upcoming Document No. 1 will continue the orientation towards green agricultural transformation and deepen the work of replacing chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers. Local supporting policies are also being implemented simultaneously. Fujian has specified that in 2026, farmers who apply qualified commercial organic fertilizers will receive a subsidy of up to 100 yuan per mu, while Huazhou, Guangdong, has directly linked the 111.8 yuan/mu farmland subsidy to increased organic fertilizer application.
2. Industry Reality: The national consumption of organic fertilizer is approximately 40 million tons (pure nutrients), accounting for 59.5% of the total resources. The annual output value of China's organic fertilizer industry has exceeded 40 billion yuan, with more than 4,500 enterprises. However, the industry concentration is extremely low, with approximately two-thirds of companies having an annual production capacity of less than 20,000 tons. Li Yanming, associate professor at China Agricultural University, points out that the industry is at a critical stage of transitioning from "policy-driven" to "market-driven."
3. Market Opportunities: The global organic fertilizer market is experiencing explosive growth. Li Yanming predicts that the global organic fertilizer market size will reach $227 billion in 2028 and exceed $300 billion in 2030. Currently, the application rate of organic fertilizer in my country is about 20%, far lower than the level of over 50% in developed countries in Europe and America. Market analysis suggests that, based on theoretical development potential, the Chinese organic fertilizer market has a potential output value of nearly 500 billion yuan.
4. Key Challenges: Despite the bright prospects, the industry still needs to overcome several key hurdles to truly mature and realize its potential: poor product stability, high technical barriers for farmers, and insufficient industrial scale. Organic fertilizer raw materials come from diverse sources, and nutrient content and release efficiency are often unstable. Shifting from reliance on "fast-acting" chemical fertilizers to the use of "slow-acting" organic fertilizers requires a systematic change in fertilization concepts and agronomic practices.
