In late February 2026, the global and Chinese fertilizer markets showed a significant upward trend. Against the backdrop of the full-scale commencement of spring planting preparations in China and continued international geopolitical instability, fertilizer prices experienced a general price increase. Simultaneously, global fertilizer trade flows are undergoing profound supply chain restructuring.
Domestic Market: Volume and Price Rise Together, Policy Supports Spring Planting
Entering mid-to-late February, the domestic fertilizer market showed strong upward momentum, with core fertilizer prices remaining high due to high raw material costs. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that as of February 10, the market price of urea (small granules) had increased by more than 3% compared to the end of 2025, and by more than 5% year-on-year. The phosphate fertilizer sector was particularly strong; as of February 24, the market price of monoammonium phosphate (55% powder) had increased by a staggering 16.67% year-on-year.
This round of price increases is inseparable from strong policy support. In early February, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on ensuring the supply and price stability of fertilizers for spring plowing and the whole year in 2026, explicitly encouraging domestic sulfur to be prioritized for direct supply to phosphate fertilizer companies and requiring phosphate fertilizer producers to actively supply domestic phosphate fertilizers to the domestic market. Simultaneously, the 2026 Central Document No. 1 explicitly set a grain output target of "stabilizing at around 1.4 trillion jin" for the first time. Pacific Securities analysts believe that this target increase will rigidly raise the fertilizer application rate per unit area, which is a long-term positive for the fertilizer industry.
Technological Empowerment Fosters New Agricultural Input Business Models. The Central Document No. 1 included "drones, the Internet of Things, and robots" for the first time, and explicitly proposed "developing new agricultural productivity according to local conditions." This is a historic breakthrough, marking a shift in agricultural production from experience-driven to intelligence-driven, pointing the way for technological innovation and industrial upgrading in the traditional agricultural input industry.
International Focus: Restructuring of the Phosphate and Potassium Supply Chain, Shifting Price Center Upwards
In the international market, supply chain uncertainty has become the main driver of rising prices. As of February 24, international phosphate fertilizer prices had exceeded $700 per ton. This is primarily due to the restructuring of the global phosphorus supply chain—as the world's former largest exporter, China's export strategy for 2026 remains unclear, potentially further driving up global prices.
Regarding potash fertilizer, the impact of geopolitics continues to unfold. Restrictions on fertilizer shipments from Russia and Belarus in the Baltic region, along with the doubling of shipping costs due to the Red Sea crisis, are forcing dramatic changes in traditional trade flows. China is addressing this challenge through diversification.
