Entering March 2026, the global fertilizer market was impacted by both the peak demand season for spring planting and geopolitical disturbances. Prices for nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers fluctuated at high levels overall, and the tight supply chain situation persisted, becoming a focus of attention in the global agricultural input market.
This month, spring planting and fertilizer preparations fully commenced in the Northern Hemisphere, with seasonal fertilizer demand concentrated in Southeast Asia and South America, providing strong support for the market. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered supply chain concerns. Approximately one-quarter of global nitrogen fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. As a major urea exporter, Iran's production and logistical fluctuations directly affected the global nitrogen fertilizer market, pushing urea prices slightly higher.
The phosphate fertilizer market continued its strong performance. Supported by strategic controls on phosphate rock, rising raw material sulfur prices, and strong overseas procurement demand, international phosphate fertilizer prices broke through $700/ton. Domestic monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate prices remained stable with slight increases, and the tight supply-demand balance in the industry continued.
Potash fertilizer saw the most significant price increases this month. On the supply side, operating rates in major domestic producing areas remained low, leading to tight imported potash supplies. Internationally, supplies from Russia and Belarus contracted, and the Canadian Potash Export Alliance sold out its first-quarter orders, resulting in a sharp decrease in spot market circulation. Driven by demand from Southeast Asia and Latin America, global potash prices remained high, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing only what they needed, resulting in a mix of market observation and restocking demand.
On the cost side, price volatility in raw materials such as natural gas and sulfur intensified, and the situation in the Red Sea led to a more than 50% increase in shipping costs, further pushing up fertilizer production and trade costs. According to foreign media reports, the US and Israeli strikes against Iran have raised concerns about supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. It is estimated that about a quarter of the world's nitrogen-based fertilizers pass through this region. DTN data shows that most fertilizer prices have risen for two consecutive weeks, with urea prices up 6% compared to January. If the conflict escalates, global fertilizer prices may face a new wave of shocks.
