1. Urea: International Prices Fluctuate Narrowly, Domestic Prices Weaken Downward
International Market: Black Sea small-particle urea FOB price is $370-375/ton, up $15/ton from last week; Qatar large-particle urea FOB price is $410/ton, with 45,000 tons traded this week; Indian small-particle urea CFR price is $424.81-426.81/ton, up $6.8/ton. Domestic Market: The domestic market dragged down export expectations, with ex-factory prices of small-particle urea in major producing areas such as Shandong and Hebei falling by $2.9-6.4/ton from last week. Iran's continued natural gas shortage has limited urea production, leading most producers to raise their FOB large-particle urea prices to $395/ton, up $5 week-on-week, and planning to further test the $400 mark. This change provides a short-term upward signal for the international urea market.
2. Phosphate Fertilizer: Stable Prices Supported by Costs, Continued Export Policies
The international diammonium phosphate (DAP) market remains stable. In China's main producing areas, the ex-factory price of 64% DAP is equivalent to approximately US$572-580 per ton. High prices are supported by high costs for phosphate rock and sulfur. International sulfur prices continue to rise. Qatar's January FOB sulfur price was US$517 per ton, up US$22 per ton month-on-month; the UAE FOB price was US$520 per ton, up US$25 per ton month-on-month, further pushing up phosphate fertilizer production costs. China's policy of temporarily suspending phosphate fertilizer exports until August 2026 remains in effect, impacting the global supply structure.
3. Potash Fertilizer: Tight Supply and Demand Balance, Firm Prices
International potash fertilizer prices remain firm. Russian potash border trade prices are quoted at US$363 per ton for red potash and US$361 per ton for white potash, up US$3 per ton from the previous month. The average price of potassium chloride in the domestic market is 3282 yuan/ton, equivalent to approximately US$469/ton. Port inventory remains low at 2.45 million tons, with winter fertilizer stockpiling supporting prices. Tianjin Port efficiently unloaded its first 19,000-ton imported potash fertilizer vessel this week, ensuring spring planting supply.
Impact of Industry Policies on Market Structure
Policy Benefits: EU Suspends Carbon Tariffs on Fertilizers and Eliminates Some Import Tariffs
From January 1, 2026, the EU officially suspended carbon tariffs on fertilizers and other commodities, simultaneously eliminating the 6.5% import tariff on nitrogen fertilizer and 5.5% on ammonia, creating a cost advantage for fertilizer exports to Europe. Furthermore, European Commission documents indicate that if carbon tariffs cause serious market damage, certain commodities may receive retroactive exemptions, potentially benefiting the fertilizer industry.
International Cooperation: India and the EU Reach Large-Scale Green Ammonia Supply Agreement
On January 12, German and Indian companies signed a long-term supply agreement to purchase up to 500,000 tons of renewable ammonia annually, with the first deliveries expected to begin in 2028. This agreement establishes a green fuel supply corridor between India and Europe, aligning with Europe's decarbonization needs and supporting India's ambition to export green hydrogen derivatives.
The Indonesian government announced a successful 20% reduction in domestic fertilizer prices while ensuring supply through significant simplification of distribution. Simultaneously, agricultural technologies focused on improving efficiency are being implemented rapidly. For example, the "double-cropping rice fertilizer reduction and efficiency enhancement technology" promoted in Nanchang, China, has significantly improved fertilizer utilization while increasing grain yields. This indicates a continued growth in market demand for efficient and environmentally friendly fertilizer products in the future.
