Export Controls: Fertilizer Reserves Released on Schedule, Exports Halted
According to a report by Longzhong Information on March 24, to prevent market speculation from causing a mismatch in urea supply, relevant departments issued an emergency notice in mid-March requiring local storage enterprises to immediately sell all their nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer reserves, with the aim of completing sales by the end of March. Simultaneously, some export channels have been suspended.
Previously, the state had already released 10 million tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer reserves to ensure market supply during the spring planting season. Currently, domestic urea daily production is stable at 216,900 tons, with an industry operating rate of 86.63%, up 1.81 percentage points year-on-year. To ensure agricultural production, railway transportation continues to offer preferential fertilizer freight rates, and relevant departments are strengthening market supervision, severely cracking down on hoarding and price gouging to effectively maintain order in fertilizer use during spring planting.
International Market: Supply Chain Crisis Continues to Escalate
Internationally, the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to profoundly impact the global fertilizer supply chain. According to a report by the Turkish News Agency on March 23, the effective closure of this key waterway has led to a 33% contraction in the global fertilizer supply chain, with urea exports from the Middle East, totaling 22 million tons per year, almost coming to a standstill. Six of the world's top 10 urea exporting countries are unable to export normally; among the top five phosphate fertilizer exporting countries, only Morocco has a stable supply.
Regarding prices, urea prices surged from $482.5/ton on February 27 to $720/ton in mid-March, an increase of approximately 50%; ammonia prices in the Middle East rose by 24%, approaching $600/ton.
US Update: USDA to Boost Fertilizer Transportation
On March 22, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced that additional announcements related to increasing fertilizer transportation volumes will be released. The move is aimed at addressing tight fertilizer supplies and high cost pressures facing American farmers. Data shows that nitrogen fertilizer prices in the United States have risen by approximately 95%, while potash prices have surged by more than 70%.
Overall, the domestic and international fertilizer markets continue to diverge: international prices are high due to geopolitical conflicts, while domestic prices remain stable under policy regulation.
