Supply Chain and Trade Dynamics
Recently, geopolitical and trade policies have directly impacted the global fertilizer supply chain.
1. Russian Export Ban
Russia decided to temporarily ban the export of technical sulfur starting November 2, 2025, in order to stabilize the supply of raw materials needed for its domestic fertilizer production and maintain its food security. Its impact will last until the end of the year and may have a ripple effect on the global fertilizer market.
2. Belarusian Transportation Dilemma
As a major global potash fertilizer producer, Belarus's export routes have been further hampered by Lithuanian transit restrictions. Lithuania closed its border crossings with Belarus, prohibiting Belarusian goods (including potash fertilizer) from transiting through Kaliningrad until December 1. This forces Belarusians to turn to more distant and costly Russian ports, doubling logistics costs and exacerbating concerns about global potash fertilizer supply.
Market and Industry Impact
1. Cost and Price Pressures
Sulfur is a key raw material for phosphate fertilizer production. The rise in the UAE's November sulfur contract price, coupled with Russia's export ban, may put upward pressure on fertilizer prices.
2. Disruptions to African Food Security
In Africa, where supply chains are already fragile, high fertilizer prices and accessibility have had serious consequences. Experts point out that this has led to a significant reduction in fertilizer use by local farmers, with average usage far lower than in other regions, directly causing crop yield reductions and seriously threatening food security.
3. Industry Exploration and Transformation
In Cambodia, facing the "scissors difference" between low prices for major crops and rising agricultural input costs, agricultural input distribution channels are expanding into lower-tier markets and beginning to focus on green agricultural inputs, but market acceptance still needs to be cultivated.
Conclusion
The recent fluctuations in the international fertilizer market are primarily due to the impact of geopolitics on supply chains. These factors are collectively driving up the costs and supply risks of key raw materials, bringing significant uncertainty to global fertilizer trade. For international traders, closely monitoring policy trends, expanding supply channels, and strengthening supply chain resilience have become crucial for coping with the current complex situation.
