According to the latest report from Mordor Intelligence, the Southeast Asia fertilizer market will maintain steady growth, with a CAGR of 4.2% from 2025 to 2027. The market size will increase from $11.2 billion in 2025 to $12.1 billion in 2027, with population growth and agricultural modernization being the core driving forces.
Key Growth Drivers
Population Growth and Food Demand: The growing population in Southeast Asia is leading to increasing demand for food, which in turn stimulates the demand for fertilizers to improve crop yields.
Improved Productivity: To meet the growing food demand, the region needs to improve agricultural productivity, which requires more efficient use of fertilizers.
Southeast Asia Market Dynamics
Policy Regulation: Indonesia's Mandatory Price Reduction and Regional Impact
With strong government subsidies, the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture announced in November 2025 that subsidized fertilizer prices had been reduced by 20% nationwide, a uniform policy across the country. This move aims to reduce farmers' production costs, leading to a 20% increase in urea and NPK fertilizer purchases. The implementation process has also been simplified; farmers now only need their original identification documents to purchase subsidized fertilizers, eliminating the previously required farmer's card.
Demand-Driven: Stable Growth in the Thai Market
Krungsri Bank in Thailand released an industry outlook report predicting that domestic fertilizer demand in Thailand will grow by 2.0-3.0% annually from 2025 to 2027. This growth is attributed to the positive impact of economic growth on purchasing power, and the expectation that agricultural product prices will remain high, encouraging farmers to expand planting areas. The El Niño phenomenon will be a key variable, as it will expand household water access, contributing to increased annual yields of major crops such as rice, rubber, and oil palm.
Trade Flows: Vietnam's Fertilizer Trade
Vietnam's fertilizer import and export situation shows a trend of import diversification and export expansion. Vietnam is transforming from a purely importing country into an important part of regional trade. Its export markets are highly concentrated in neighboring countries, with Cambodia being its largest fertilizer export market, accounting for 24.9% of its total exports. Regarding imports, China remains Vietnam's largest fertilizer supplier due to its geographical location and cost advantages. However, due to China's fertilizer export restrictions, Vietnam's imports of high-priced fertilizers from Russia are also increasing significantly.
