The global fertilizer market has entered the Q4 game phase with clear divergence across product varieties. The domestic autumn fertilizer consumption peak is nearly over, shifting market focus to pre-sales for winter stockpiling. Internationally, India’s new urea tender has concluded. High and volatile sulfur prices on the raw material front, coupled with shipping disruptions in the Middle East, bring uncertainties to the global fertilizer supply chain.
India’s IPL completed the bid opening for its new urea import tender on October 7. The total planned purchase volume stands at 1.7 million tonnes, including 700,000 tonnes for the East Coast and 1 million tonnes for the West Coast. The tender received bids from 25 suppliers, with an offered supply volume reaching 5.349 million tonnes. Ample supply resulted in intense market competition.
The lowest CFR quotations in this tender were USD 352.10/tonne for India’s East Coast and USD 356.25/tonne for the West Coast. The prices fell below prior market expectations and declined notably compared with India’s previous tender in August. IPL has initiated counter-offer negotiations with the lowest bidders. However, this price level leads to negative margins for most exporters, and full supply agreements were not finalized in the first round of talks.
Up to now, only a small volume has been confirmed as concluded. There remains a substantial gap to meet the 1.7-million-tonne procurement target. The tender quotation validity expires on October 15, and the final procurement outcome remains uncertain.
In the domestic market, autumn fertilizer demand is fading, and compound fertilizer manufacturers have officially launched pre-sales for the 2026 winter stockpiling. Pervasive market caution prevails at present. Domestic distributors face tight capital and remain prudent in purchasing, with preference given to high-nitrogen formulations. Global fertilizer procurement budgets have been tightened. Overseas buyers generally adopt the strategy of replenishing supplies in batches as needed and refrain from large one-off cargo commitments. During the winter stockpiling phase, the mainstream quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer has moved lower. Raw materials including sulfur and ammonium phosphate stay at high levels, squeezing factory margins. Consequently, compound fertilizer producers maintain conservative pre-sales policies.
Across the global fertilizer landscape, market trends are notably divergent. Urea supplies are ample, and international prices remain weak. Phosphate fertilizers are supported by high raw material costs (sulfur), yet sluggish downstream demand makes it difficult to pass these costs on. Potash supplies at ports are plentiful, leaving little momentum for price increases as the market focuses on clearing existing inventory. Supply chain risks are concentrated on Middle East shipping routes, where geopolitical tensions continue to drive up freight and insurance costs and extend delivery times, posing potential risks to the supply of phosphate fertilizer raw materials.
