Mid-July has seen structural divergence emerge across the global fertilizer market amid policy adjustments, tightening raw material supplies and seasonal demand shifts. New statutory inspection regulations for China’s ammonium sulfate exports have taken effect; shrinking global sulfur supplies have pushed up production costs of chemical fertilizers worldwide; international urea prices have rebounded after nearly three months of declines; phosphate and potash fertilizers are generally holding firm at high levels, while geopolitical and shipping risks remain core variables shaping the market.
Nitrogen Fertilizer: Urea Bucked The Trend And Strengthened, While Ammonium Sulfate Continued To Face Pressure
Since July, the global nitrogen fertilizer market has shown significant divergence. Urea prices rose against the trend, driven by demand in Europe and the United States, with the highest FOB price in Egypt reaching $448 per ton and in Algeria reaching $471 per ton. The European market became the core driver of this round of urea price increases, with continued growth in demand in multiple markets. The Brazilian market also recovered simultaneously, with landed prices rising to around $430 per ton. The production capacity of nitrogen fertilizer in the Middle East remains uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, and shipping efficiency in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully recovered, posing a continued risk of supply fluctuations.
Phosphate Fertilizer: Hidden Shortage Risks Emerging
The phosphate fertilizer market is undergoing an adjustment logic different from that of nitrogen fertilizer. Supported by raw material costs and supply contraction, international diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, with current mainstream FOB prices ranging from $590 to $770 per ton. Affected by the shortage of sulfur raw materials, some global phosphate fertilizer producers have arranged for early plant maintenance, and some NPK compound fertilizer production lines have reduced or stopped operating, slowing down short-term spot delivery. Currently, Middle Eastern sulfur prices remain high, with the UAE ADNOC July official contract price at $1000 per ton FOB and Qatar's FOB price at $890 per ton, both breaking historical highs.
Potash Fertilizer: Prices Strong Despite Off-Season
The potash fertilizer market is performing steadily. In the second quarter of 2026, the average CFR price of potassium chloride in Southeast Asia was $392/ton, an increase of $40 compared to the previous quarter. In the first half of 2026, domestic potassium chloride production decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, while apparent consumption increased by 21.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance.
Trade Policy: Statutory Inspection for Ammonium Sulfate Exports Officially Implemented on July 16th
On July 9th, the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 97 of 2026, implementing statutory inspection for ammonium sulfate exports starting July 16th. In 2025, China's ammonium sulfate exports exceeded 21 million tons, making it the world's largest exporter, accounting for more than 70% of global trade. The new regulations will end the long-standing era of exemption from export inspection for ammonium sulfate, driving the industry to shift from low-price competition to compliant and high-quality development.
