In July 2026, the global fertilizer market was impacted by a confluence of factors, including raw material export bans, shipping risks, and concentrated fertilizer stockpiling by various countries. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash fertilizer prices showed divergent upward trends. Geopolitical supply disruptions will continue to push up the average fertilizer price for the year, significantly increasing agricultural import costs in South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Raw materials became the core driver of this round of price increases. Russia's sulfur export ban officially took effect on July 1st and was extended to December 31st, with exemptions only for all sulfur categories granted to the Eurasian Economic Union. Kazakhstan followed suit, indefinitely suspending sulfur exports from June 27th, allowing only domestic supply within Russia. These two major sulfur exporting countries effectively blocked land routes through Central Asia. Multiple industry institutions estimate that global sulfur supply will decrease by over 4.2 million tons for the year, with a supply-demand gap ranging from 6.5 million to 9 million tons.

Currently, international CIF sulfur prices remain stable at $1100-1200/ton, while Qatar FOB sulfur prices have increased by $85 to $890/ton. Sulfur is a core raw material for phosphate fertilizers. Overseas phosphate fertilizer companies are experiencing significant cost inversions, and Morocco's OCP has proactively initiated maintenance and production control measures, tightening the global spot market supply of phosphate fertilizers. Coupled with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz handles 49% of global sulfur shipping, and navigational risks remain, raw material prices lack downward pressure in the short term.

The nitrogen fertilizer market is seeing a surge in bidding activity from India. At the end of May, India issued a tender for 1.7 million tons of urea, with 900,000 tons allocated to the west coast. All shipments must be loaded by July 20th for rice planting during the July-September rainy season. In early July, Middle Eastern urea FOB prices rose slightly, and mainstream regional FOB prices increased. Iran exported 140,000 tons of granular urea in a single week to supply the South Asian and Southeast Asian markets. Egypt's urea spot prices faced downward pressure in early July due to the concentrated resumption of production at domestic nitrogen fertilizer plants. High European natural gas prices and low operating rates at domestic nitrogen fertilizer plants meant that August export orders were largely sold out, resulting in a persistent regional supply gap.

The potash market relied on India's annual large contracts to establish a price floor. The 2026 Indian potassium chloride CFR contract price is $383/ton, up $34 year-on-year, while the current global mainstream potassium chloride CFR range is $385-405/ton. Global potash giants actively controlled supply to stabilize prices, and tight European spot inventories led to a slight price increase. Southeast Asian palm and rubber orchards have consistently high demand, and the lack of large-scale fertilizer production capacity in Laos and Cambodia has resulted in steady growth in import demand for specialty fertilizers and potash.