In 2026, India’s urea import tenders traced an unusual “cliff-drop” curve. Starting from panic buying amid geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the year, prices fell well below market expectations in the third quarter. The price tendering gap within the year exceeded USD 600 per tonne, clearly marking the rapid shift of the global urea market from supply crisis to rebalancing.
The first tender in April was launched by IPL. The final CIF price reached $959 per tonne for the East Coast and $935 per tonne for the West Coast, with India securing 2.5 million tonnes of supply in one go. This marked the price peak of 2026. The sharp rally stemmed from a sudden supply disruption: the US-Israel-Iran conflict hampered shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting exports of natural gas and urea from the Middle East. India’s domestic urea production is heavily reliant on imported natural gas. Several large-scale plants were forced to shut down or reduce operating rates in March, and monthly output plunged sharply from the normal level of around 2.4 million tonnes. With the spring fertilization window fast approaching, India had to rush to replenish inventories at prices far above market levels.
By mid-year, as the impact of the geopolitical shocks began to wane, prices fell rapidly. On June 8, a tender by NFL for 1.7 million metric tons resulted in landed prices of $444.90/MT on the East Coast and $449.30/MT on the West Coast—less than half of the April peak. By the end of July, RCF issued another tender for 1.7 million metric tons, securing landed prices between $390.25 and $393.65/MT, moving closer to a normalized range.
However, the downward trend in prices did not stop there. In late September, IPL issued another tender for 1.7 million tonnes of urea. By the October 7 bid deadline, the lowest offers—$352.10/tonne (CFR) for the East Coast and $356.25/tonne (CFR) for the West Coast—marked the lowest price levels seen in the Indian market since September 2024. As these prices fell short of market expectations, only 410,000 tonnes were ultimately contracted, with no Chinese supply among the winning bids. With domestic prices exceeding export-parity levels, Chinese producers and traders opted out, causing anticipated export opportunities to evaporate; consequently, the domestic urea market shifted into a "wait-and-see" mode, and the pace of shipments to ports slowed.
Over the past year, India’s approach to urea tenders has shifted from "securing supply at any cost" to "driving down prices and purchasing opportunistically." The gap between $959/tonne and $352/tonne not only reflects the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums but also exposes India’s deep-seated reliance on imported natural gas and external urea supplies. Until new domestic production capacity comes online, tenders will remain the primary lever for India to balance its domestic supply and demand—and the price resulting from each tender will continue to serve as a bellwether for the global urea market.
