Recently, the global fertilizer market is generally characterized by under pressure nitrogen fertilizers, stagnant phosphate fertilizers and stable potash fertilizers. Traders are generally cautious in placing orders. India’s tenders and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain the two core factors shaping market sentiment. The domestic market maintains regular supply stability with relatively limited fluctuations.

Urea stands at the core of the market. India’s last urea tender concluded with 410,000 tonnes awarded, with no Chinese cargo secured. The main reason was the low winning price, which created an FOB price inversion against domestic small granular urea, rather than a shortage of supply. The market is awaiting the next major tender.

Black Sea small granular urea is assessed at USD 375–400/tonne FOB; Baltic small granular urea at USD 370–395/tonne FOB, and Baltic granular urea at around USD 420/tonne FOB. Middle East supplies are constrained by shipping disruptions, with freight and war risk premiums rising continuously, pushing FOB quotes higher and limiting spot availability.

Southeast Asian granular urea is priced at USD 460–485/tonne CFR, while Brazilian granular urea for the planting season is at USD 465–480/tonne CFR. Nonetheless, buyers remain on the sidelines and are reluctant to lock in long-term contracts in advance.

Phosphate fertilizers face high cost pressures. Sulphur prices hold around USD 800/tonne, directly lifting production costs for phosphate fertilizers. Constrained by long-term contracts and India’s subsidy framework, nominal DAP quotes stay range-bound, yet producers and importers are under notable strain. The prevailing global DAP CFR price stands at approximately USD 900/tonne. The delayed release of India’s Rabi season nutrient subsidy scheme adds further uncertainty to phosphate imports. Morocco’s OCP continues to flag risks of sulphur shortage.

The potash fundamentals remain relatively solid. Standard MOP CFR for Southeast Asia has risen to USD 385–390/tonne, with granular potash commanding a premium of USD 10–20/tonne. Demand is underpinned by palm oil restocking in Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as purchases for high-value cash crops in Vietnam. On the supply side, Uralkali plans to shut down 3.6 million tonnes of potash capacity during 2027–2029. Belarusian potash output is cut by maintenance in the second half of this year. The major incremental supply in the long run will mainly come from BHP’s Jansen project in Canada.

European nitrogen fertilizer production is weighed down substantially by high natural gas costs. Yara has cut its output of nitrogen fertilizers and ammonia, with around 270,000 tonnes of ammonia capacity offline, leading to sluggish regional trading. Demand in Southeast Asia remains steady. Meanwhile, global majors including Uralkali are expanding direct distribution channels in Thailand, intensifying competition against Chinese export cargoes.