In April 2026, the global fertilizer market experienced severe volatility due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Prices of core products such as urea and sulfur reached new highs in recent years, posing a serious challenge to the international supply chain. Various countries introduced a series of countermeasures, while China maintained relative stability in its domestic market through strict export controls and supply guarantee policies.
Core Driver: Middle East Conflict Triggers Supply Chain Crisis
In mid-April, the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz became the core trigger for market volatility. All ammonia-urea plants in Iran were forced to shut down due to the conflict, and exports of related products were completely suspended on April 13. Qatar Energy Company, the world's largest single urea plant (with a capacity of 5.6 million tons/year), also shut down due to a natural gas supply disruption. The Persian Gulf region handles 36% of global urea and 40% of sulfur trade. The conflict resulted in 44 fertilizer cargo ships being stranded, and shipping volume declined by more than 90% compared to the beginning of the year, directly creating a hard shortage in global fertilizer supply.
Price Storm: Core Commodities See Price Surges Across the Board
International market prices have experienced an explosive surge. Urea prices rose 26% month-on-month, with the average price reaching $847 per ton, a year-on-year increase of over 70%, reaching a new high since October 2022; sulfur prices doubled to $140 per ton, directly pushing up phosphate fertilizer production costs; diammonium phosphate prices also rose, making a global fertilizer price increase trend a certainty.
Policy Game: China Strictly Controls Exports, Many Countries Make Emergency Purchases
On April 10, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs issued an announcement suspending the export of ordinary sulfuric acid from May 1 (only electronic-grade sulfuric acid was exempted), further strengthening the raw material supply constraints on the global phosphate fertilizer industry chain. Previously, China had implemented a comprehensive export ban on phosphate fertilizers from March 14 (until August 31), locking the annual urea export quota at 3.3 million tons, and suspending the export of small-packaged urea until April 30.
Faced with supply shortages, India finalized a massive order for 2.5 million tons of urea on April 23, purchasing it from the international market at a high price of $935-959 per ton, accounting for about one-third of its annual imports. Nepal urgently purchased 80,000 tons of fertilizer from India through an intergovernmental agreement. The EU plans to launch a fertilizer action plan in May to address both supply shortages and the industry's low-carbon transition.
Market Impact: Global Agricultural Production Under Pressure
A survey by the U.S. Farm Bureau Federation shows that 70% of farmers cannot afford the necessary fertilizer inputs, and the supply shortage is severely impacting agricultural production plans. Farmers' planting costs have risen sharply, and their profits are being continuously squeezed. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that fertilizer shortages may lead to reduced global crop yields in the second half of 2026 and 2027, potentially putting approximately 45 million people at risk of food insecurity.
