International Market: Geopolitical Conflict Triggers Supply Chain Crisis, Prices Hit Three-Year High
In April 2026, the global fertilizer market was plunged into a severe supply crisis due to escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by over 90% compared to the beginning of the year. This waterway carries approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade and nearly half of sulfur exports, directly resulting in a near 50% reduction in effective global fertilizer supply.
Prices surged across the board for international fertilizers. The FOB price of granular urea from the Middle East soared from less than $500 per ton before the conflict to around $850, an increase of over 75%. India's latest urea tender price hit a record high of $959 per ton, a nearly 90% increase compared to two months prior. Phosphate fertilizer led the price surge, with the landed price of diammonium phosphate in Southeast Asia and Brazil exceeding $950 per ton, a 60%-70% increase compared to the beginning of the year.
Multiple countries introduced export restrictions, exacerbating market tensions. Russia announced in early April a suspension of ammonium nitrate exports until the end of April (accounting for approximately 40% of global exports) and extended the ban on nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer exports; Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and other Middle Eastern countries simultaneously tightened export quotas for potash and phosphate fertilizers.
Domestic Market: Significant Results in Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices; Sufficient Fertilizer Supply and Stable Prices for Spring Planting
In stark contrast to the international market, China's fertilizer market exhibited a "tight external supply, stable domestic supply" pattern. The country implemented the strictest export controls in history: from March 14th to August 31st, phosphate fertilizer exports were completely halted; the annual urea export quota was locked at 3.3 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 68%); and exports of small packages under 10kg were suspended until the end of April.
By the end of April, the peak season for fertilizer use during spring planting in China was coming to an end, with ample supply and relatively stable prices. The three main factors contributing to the stability of fertilizer prices in my country are: approximately 80% of urea uses coal as a raw material, mitigating the risk of international gas price fluctuations; the government released nearly 10 million tons of commercial reserves in advance, effectively stabilizing market fluctuations; and the entire industry chain is self-reliant and controllable. The total urea production in 2026 is projected to reach 76.5 million tons, achieving a self-sufficiency rate of over 100%.
The government is ensuring fertilizer supply for spring planting through a comprehensive supply chain encompassing production, distribution, and storage. The railway sector is implementing preferential freight rates for agricultural fertilizers and prioritizing capacity allocation. Simultaneously, the industry is accelerating its green transformation; the 2026 Central Document No. 1 requires that the proportion of new fertilizer production increase to 35%, and the market for green fertilizers such as bio-organic fertilizers and water-soluble fertilizers achieve an annual growth rate of 10%-15%. Despite international instability, domestic demand for fertilizers for grain production is strongly guaranteed, laying a solid foundation for a bumper harvest throughout the year.
