In 2025, China's fertilizer industry has maintained steady progress under the dual themes of stable supply and green transition.
Market Supply and Demand: Steady with Changes, New Characteristics Emerge in Export Pattern
The fundamental landscape of China's domestic fertilizer market in 2025 is ample supply. The country's newly added urea production capacity reached approximately 5.1 million tons, pushing the annual urea output to a maximum of 71 million tons—far exceeding the market's effective demand of around 65.5 million tons.
On the demand side, structural shifts are prominent. For one thing, the traditional agricultural demand has remained stable: the national agricultural chemical fertilizer demand in 2025 is estimated at 50.177 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous year. For another, the industrial urea demand in non-agricultural sectors has stabilized at around 18 million tons.
In terms of imports and exports, a striking contrast of "one decline, one surge" has emerged. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of chemical fertilizers nationwide stood at 11.04 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year. Among them, potassium fertilizer imports mainly relied on traditional suppliers such as Russia and Belarus.
Export performance, on the other hand, has been robust. During the same period, the export volume of chemical fertilizers hit 38.42 million tons, soaring by 48.3% year-on-year. Urea and ammonium sulfate emerged as the core export products, with their major destination markets including Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Brazil.
Price Trend: Emerging from Volatility to Stabilize at Year-End
After several years of sharp fluctuations, fertilizer prices in 2025 stabilized overall and remained significantly lower than the historic highs recorded in 2021–2022.
Looking at the overall trend throughout the year, prices showed positive support signals at the end of the year. Entering November, demand for winter fertilizer reserves started, coupled with rising raw material costs, leading to a slight increase in the prices of most fertilizer types. Specifically, in November 2025, the average ex-factory price of domestic urea increased by 1.7% month-on-month. The average ex-factory price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.6% month-on-month. Potassium chloride prices remained stable.
Industry Transformation: Technology-Driven, Green and Efficient Becomes a Consensus
Faced with the dual pressures of overcapacity and environmental requirements, the fertilizer industry's transformation path in 2025 was clear and firm: seeking development space through green and efficient methods.
Throughout the year, a number of major technologies and projects were implemented. In December, Germany’s Schröder Efficiency-Enhancing Technology 2.0 was officially launched for large-scale application in China. This technology can increase nitrogen use efficiency from the traditional range of 30%–42.6% to over 65%, providing a new technical solution to address the long-standing industry challenge of low nitrogen fertilizer utilization.
A more scalable practice comes from the "Hundred Counties, Ten Thousand Hectares" initiative led by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. In 2025, this initiative demonstrated and promoted green live bacteria technology in 61 counties across 18 provinces nationwide. Data shows that fertilizer use in the demonstration areas decreased by 10%-20%, and average crop yields increased by 5%-8%, achieving significant results of "reducing fertilizer use, increasing yield, and increasing income." Based on successful practices, the initiative has announced an upgrade in 2026, indicating that green fertilizers are moving from pilot demonstrations to large-scale promotion and application.
Policy and Future: Improved Regulations, Clear Path to High-Quality Development
Policy levels provide clear guidance for the standardization and upgrading of the industry. In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will prioritize the advancement of fertilizer management legislation, aiming to establish a comprehensive management system covering all aspects of production, distribution, use, and supervision.
Looking ahead to 2026, while ensuring stable supply, the industry will place greater emphasis on green, intelligent, and efficient technologies. With the expansion of national-level projects such as the "Hundred Counties, Ten Thousand Hectares" program and the industrialization of efficiency-enhancing technologies at the enterprise level, value competition in fertilizer products will gradually replace simple price competition.
