After the National Day holiday, domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has basically ended, the winter storage market has not yet started, downstream purchasing willingness is generally low, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood.
1. India's urea tender is affecting market nerves
Tender expectations heat up: India plans to launch a new round of urea import tenders in October, with a target purchase volume of 2 million tons, including 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The bid deadline is October 15, with quotations valid until October 30, and the latest shipment date is December 10.
Ammonium sulfate inquiries have picked up: buyers in Southeast Asia, Türkiye and India are seeking loading volumes for October-November. The FOB price of granular ammonium sulfate is $152-158/ton, unchanged from before the holiday, but new orders have not yet increased in volume.
2. Domestic policies continue to exert force
Measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other government departments issued the "Petrochemical Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)," which calls for optimizing fertilizer production plans, promoting the development of high-efficiency fertilizers such as slow-release and controlled-release fertilizers, and strengthening integrated regulation of production, transportation, storage, and sales.
Export quota adjustment: The fourth-quarter urea export quota has not yet been determined, but the market expects an increase. If the policy is implemented, it may provide short-term support for domestic prices.
3. Brazil to start production of new urea plants
Petrobras previously announced it would divest its fertilizer business to focus on oil and gas exploration and production in deepwater fields offshore Brazil. However, Brazilian President Lula da Silva hopes Petrobras will resume its role as an investor in Brazil, particularly in sectors like fertilizer.
The company's CEO recently stated that the fertilizer plant in the northeast region is expected to begin urea production in early 2026 (with a capacity of approximately 720,000 tons per year).
4. Indonesia promotes B50.
Indonesia's energy minister recently reiterated the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026, halting diesel imports.
5. Domestic urea prices continue to fall
Following India's announcement of a new round of urea tenders, domestic urea ex-factory prices continued to fall during the holiday period, approaching their lowest point this year. This is putting significant pressure on inventory. Regarding exports, although cumulative exports reached 1.37 million tons in July and August, the quota was exhausted after September, closing the export window for the fourth quarter and further exacerbating domestic oversupply pressures.
