Recent geopolitical conflicts and escalating tensions in the Middle East have brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill. This waterway handles one-third of the world's maritime fertilizer trade annually. With shipping disrupted, 3 to 4 million tons of fertilizer cannot be shipped out each month, plunging the global fertilizer market into crisis. The Gulf region supplies 20% of global fertilizer production, including nearly half of urea, and is also a major producer of key raw materials such as sulfur.
On the international market, Middle Eastern urea prices have surged from less than $500 per ton to over $700, an increase of over 40%, and nearly 60% higher than the same period last year. With spring planting approaching, major agricultural countries like India and Brazil are waiting for fertilizer to be planted, while in Europe, rising natural gas prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to numerous fertilizer plants reducing or halting production. The United Nations World Food Programme warns that in the worst-case scenario, next season's food production could be reduced or even result in a poor harvest; even in the best-case scenario, higher input costs will be reflected in food prices next year.
Urea:
However, China's spring planting season presents a different picture: supported by policies ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, farmers need not worry about fertilizer shortages, as fertilizer supply is relatively abundant and domestic prices are stable. This composure stems from the implementation of three key measures.
First, self-sufficiency across the entire industry chain. China's nitrogen fertilizer production accounts for one-third of the global total, using coal as raw material, thus eliminating dependence on natural gas and remaining unaffected by international gas price fluctuations; its phosphate fertilizer self-sufficiency rate is as high as 126%, with complete control over the process from phosphate rock to finished products; while potash fertilizer partially relies on imports, the supply has reached a record high thanks to a triple guarantee of "domestic production + imports + reserves."
Second, the national reserve system. My country has long included fertilizers in its strategic reserves, implementing a "reserve in the off-season, release in the peak season" mechanism. Recently, it launched the release of over 10 million tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer reserves, effectively smoothing out price fluctuations and ensuring sufficient supply and stable prices for spring planting.
Third, precise export control. Faced with the temptation of high international fertilizer prices, China decisively tightened exports, prioritizing domestic demand through various means, safeguarding the "fertilizer defense line" for grain production, and refusing to sacrifice food security for short-term profits.
China's ability to stabilize fertilizer supply relies on years of continuous investment in energy, food, and supply chain security. This confidence is not a matter of luck, but rather a hard power firmly in its own hands. During the spring planting season, machines hum, farmers are busy, and fertilizer is plentiful—this composed scene is precisely the most reassuring sense of security the nation provides to its people.
