The global fertilizer market has recently shown significant divergence. Multiple factors, including the changing peak seasons for agricultural fertilizer use in various regions, geopolitical situations, international shipping, raw material prices, and tenders from major purchasing countries, have combined to drive differentiated price trends for different fertilizer categories. Overall, urea prices fluctuated significantly, phosphate fertilizers remained firm due to high costs, potash fertilizers gradually stabilized and rebounded, and ammonium sulfate saw a significant price increase. The stability of the global supply chain has also attracted continued attention from the industry and international institutions.
The international urea market experienced the most dramatic fluctuations this month. In early May, due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns about fertilizer transportation and supply led to a rapid price surge. The transaction price in India's procurement tender reached a record high of $959/ton. In late May, market panic gradually subsided, and with increased supply in circulation, urea prices saw a significant correction. FOB prices in key producing regions such as Southeast Asia and the Black Sea have declined simultaneously. On May 28th, the FOB price of Malaysian urea was $790/ton, a significant drop compared to the regional transaction price two weeks prior. To regulate market circulation, major supplying economies have implemented temporary export control policies, setting minimum FOB transaction prices. The control period covers June to August, aiming to stabilize market prices during the off-season and ensure the orderly flow of global supplies.
The phosphate fertilizer market has shown strong resilience overall. Currently, the mainstream FOB price for international diammonium phosphate (DAP) remains stable at $785/ton. The core support for this round of phosphate fertilizer prices comes from the raw material side. International sulfur prices have continued to rise due to geopolitical conflicts, significantly increasing the overall cost of fertilizer production. Even though end-user procurement has slowed in some regions, the persistently high production costs have limited the downside potential for phosphate fertilizer prices. Producers are generally maintaining firm prices, and industry insiders believe that high raw material costs will provide a long-term floor for phosphate fertilizer prices.
The global potash fertilizer market has ended its previous weakness and is gradually stabilizing and recovering. India's 2026 potash fertilizer contract has been officially finalized, with a CIF price of $383 per ton, becoming a significant indicator of global potash fertilizer pricing. As summer planting gradually begins in many Northern Hemisphere countries, agricultural demand for potash fertilizer is steadily increasing, market activity is rising, and the industry generally expects potash fertilizer prices to maintain a moderate upward trend in the short term.
