In June 2026, the domestic sulfur market ushered in a historic moment. On June 6th, the auction price of solid sulfur from Shandong local refineries broke through the 10,000 yuan/ton mark (the transaction price of one refinery reached 10,140 yuan/ton on June 6th). On June 7th, the reserve price of several local refineries in the auction surged to 9,800 yuan/ton, officially marking the beginning of the 10,000 yuan/ton era for sulfur. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic sulfur was only 3,850 yuan/ton, and in just six months, the cumulative increase exceeded 160%, making it the undisputed leader in price increases in the chemical sector.
Supply and Demand Imbalance: Three Driving Forces Ignite Prices
Supply continues to tighten. More than 90% of the world's sulfur is a byproduct of oil and natural gas desulfurization, making independent production expansion impossible. my country's sulfur import dependence is between 50% and 60%, while the Middle East accounts for approximately 40% of global production. Due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the export routes for Middle Eastern sulfur have been significantly restricted. Russia imposed an export ban starting November 2025, turning from a net exporter into a net importer, which further reduced global supply by approximately 4%.
Port inventories are nearing historical lows. Currently, total domestic sulfur port inventories are approaching 900,000 tons, a sharp drop of 55% from 2 million tons in the same period last year. This is only enough to meet domestic consumption for about 19 days, and the safe inventory threshold has been breached.
Demand is expanding strongly. In traditional agriculture, 70% of phosphate fertilizer production relies on sulfur, with spring planting demand providing a safety net. More importantly, demand from new energy sources is booming—domestic planned new lithium iron phosphate capacity will exceed 4.1 million tons in 2025-2026; and Indonesia will bring in approximately 658,000 tons of MHP capacity in 2026, corresponding to an increase in sulfur demand of up to 6.58 million tons.
Considering the current market environment, the tight international supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, and it will take at least six months to a year for overseas supplies to return to normal. Meanwhile, the demand for agricultural fertilizers and the expansion of the new energy industry will remain unchanged, and domestic inventories will continue to operate at low levels for a long time. Therefore, the tight supply-demand balance in the sulfur market is likely to continue, and a price of 10,000 yuan per ton is likely to become the new normal in the near future.
Faced with the industry's current situation of consistently high raw material prices, upstream and downstream enterprises need to proactively adjust their business strategies, flexibly adapt to the new market environment, and find a stable path to development amidst market fluctuations.
