1. Import and export data from January to February 2025: exports surged, imports shrank
According to the latest statistics from China Customs, from January to February 2025, my country's fertilizer exports reached 4.674 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 56%, and the export value was $956 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.6%; the import volume fell to 2.504 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, and the import value was $769 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%.
Interpretation: Export growth is mainly driven by the demand for agricultural products in the international market and the release of domestic production capacity, while the decline in imports is closely related to the tightening of tariff quotas and the transformation of domestic green agriculture.
2. Implementation of the tariff quota policy for fertilizer imports in 2025
The Ministry of Commerce has clarified that the total tariff quota for fertilizer imports in 2025 is 13.65 million tons, with the following specific allocations:
•Urea: 3.3 million tons (2.97 million tons for state-owned enterprises and 330,000 tons for non-state-owned enterprises);
•Diammonium hydrogen phosphate: 6.9 million tons (3.52 million tons for state-owned enterprises and 3.38 million tons for non-state-owned enterprises);
•Compound fertilizer: 3.45 million tons (1.76 million tons for state-owned enterprises and 1.69 million tons for non-state-owned enterprises).
Impact: The quota policy aims to balance domestic supply and demand and protect the competitiveness of local enterprises, but the quota share of non-state-owned enterprises is low (such as only 10% for urea), which may intensify market competition pressure.
3. Tightening of export rules for "small package fertilizers"
From January 2025, the tariff adjustment will classify fertilizers with a gross weight of no more than 10 kg per package as "small package fertilizers" (tax number 31051000), and clearly use "transport packaging" as the unit of measurement to further standardize the export declaration process.
Risk warning: The export volume of small package fertilizers will reach 500,000 tons in 2024. The new regulations may increase corporate compliance costs and curb arbitrage in the export of low-priced fertilizers.
4. Industry trends: Green transformation and reduction and efficiency increase in parallel
•Domestic policies: The green development strategy of agriculture continues to advance, and the goal of zero growth in fertilizer use in 2025 forces companies to upgrade their product structure, and the demand for high-efficiency fertilizers and organic fertilizers increases.
•International competition: The concentration of phosphate resources (Moroccan and American companies control more than 40% of the global production capacity), coupled with rising energy prices, has led to the transfer of nitrogen fertilizer production to resource-rich areas.
5. Suggestions
Enterprises should pay attention to quota dynamics, optimize export categories (such as high value-added compound fertilizers), adjust production structure, and plan green fertilizer research and development.
